Lesson

Discounted cash flow (DCF) is a valuation method used to estimate the fair value of fixed-income securities by discounting their future cash flows to the present value.

Practice Question #1

Which of the following is NOT a factor in discounted cash flow analysis?

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Terms

Discounted Cash Flow (DCF):
A valuation method used to estimate the value of an investment based on its future cash flows, discounted to the present value.
Present Value (PV):
The current value of a future cash flow, discounted at a specific rate.
Future Cash Flow:
The amount of money an investment is expected to generate in the future.
Discount Rate:
The rate used to discount future cash flows to their present value.
Net Present Value (NPV):
The sum of the present values of all future cash flows minus the initial investment.

Practice Question #2

What is the primary purpose of using discounted cash flow analysis for fixed income securities?

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Do Not Confuse With

Dividend Discount Model (DDM):
A valuation method used to determine the value of equity securities by estimating the present value of future dividends.

Practice Question #3

Which of the following best describes the relationship between the discount rate and the present value of a future cash flow?

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Historical Example

In the early 2000s, investors used discounted cash flow analysis to evaluate the value of bonds a large telecommunications company issued. The study revealed that the company's bonds were overvalued, as their future cash flows did not justify their high market prices. This insight helped investors avoid significant losses when the company eventually filed for bankruptcy.

Practice Question #4

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Real-World Example

An investor is considering purchasing a bond with a face value of $1,000, a coupon rate of 5%, and a maturity of 10 years. The investor can use discounted cash flow analysis to calculate the present value of the bond's future cash flows and determine whether the bond is fairly priced in the market.

Practice Question #5

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Formulas to Remember

DCF = CF1 / (1 + r)^1 + CF2 / (1 + r)^2 + ... + CFn / (1 + r)^n Where: DCF = Discounted Cash Flow CF1, CF2, ..., CFn = Cash flows in each period r = Discount rate n = Number of periods

Practice Question #6

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Formula Examples

Suppose an investor is considering purchasing a 3-year bond with annual cash flows of $100 and a discount rate of 5%. Calculate the present value of the bond using the discounted cash flow formula. DCF = CF1 / (1 + r)^1 + CF2 / (1 + r)^2 + CF3 / (1 + r)^3 DCF = $100 / (1 + 0.05)^1 + $100 / (1 + 0.05)^2 + $100 / (1 + 0.05)^3 DCF = $100 / 1.05 + $100 / 1.1025 + $100 / 1.157625 DCF = $95.24 + $90.70 + $86.38 DCF = $272.32

Practice Question #7

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Pitfalls to Remember

Changing discount rates:
The DCF formula assumes a constant discount rate throughout the investment period. If the discount rate changes, the formula may not accurately reflect the present value of future cash flows.
Uncertain cash flows:
The DCF formula relies on accurate cash flow projections. The formula may not provide an accurate valuation if future cash flows are uncertain or subject to change.

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