Lesson

In this section, we will learn about the discounted cash flow (DCF) method, a valuation technique used to determine the value of equity securities. The DCF method estimates the future cash flows a company will generate and discounts them back to their present value using a discount rate.

Practice Question #1

Which of the following is NOT an essential component of the discounted cash flow method?

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Terms

Discounted Cash Flow (DCF):
A valuation method used to estimate the value of an investment based on its expected future cash flows, discounted back to their present value.
Cash Flow:
The net cash and cash equivalents being transferred into and out of business.
Present Value (PV):
The current value of a future sum of money or stream of cash flows, given a specified rate of return.
Future Value (FV):
The value of an asset or cash at a specified date in the future, based on the growth rate of a given investment.
Discount Rate:
The interest rate used to determine the present value of future cash flows.

Practice Question #2

What is the primary purpose of using a discount rate in the discounted cash flow method?

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Do Not Confuse With

Dividend Discount Model (DDM):
A valuation method that focuses on the present value of future dividends rather than cash flows.

Practice Question #3

Which of the following valuation methods focuses on the present value of future dividends, rather than cash flows?

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Historical Example

In the late 1990s, many technology companies were valued using the DCF method, which led to extremely high valuations due to optimistic assumptions about future cash flows. When the dot-com bubble burst in 2000, many of these companies stock prices plummeted as investors realized that the expected cash flows were not materializing.

Practice Question #4

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Real-World Example

An investor is considering purchasing shares of a company that is expected to generate $1 million in free cash flow next year, with a growth rate of 5% per year for the next five years. Using a discount rate of 10%, the investor can calculate the present value of these cash flows and determine the intrinsic value of the company's stock.

Practice Question #5

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Formulas to Remember

DCF = CF1 / (1 + r)^1 + CF2 / (1 + r)^2 + ... + CFn / (1 + r)^n Where: DCF = Discounted Cash Flow CF1, CF2, ... CFn = Cash flows in each period r = Discount rate n = Number of periods

Practice Question #6

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Formula Examples

Company ABC has projected cash flows of $10,000 for the next 3 years. The discount rate is 5%. Calculate the present value of these cash flows using the discounted cash flow method. DCF = CF1 / (1 + r)^1 + CF2 / (1 + r)^2 + CF3 / (1 + r)^3 DCF = $10,000 / (1 + 0.05)^1 + $10,000 / (1 + 0.05)^2 + $10,000 / (1 + 0.05)^3 DCF = $10,000 / 1.05 + $10,000 / 1.1025 + $10,000 / 1.157625 DCF = $9,523.81 + $9,070.29 + $8,638.38 DCF = $27,232.48 The present value of Company ABC's cash flows is $27,232.48.

Practice Question #7

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Pitfalls to Remember

Assumptions:
The DCF method relies on future cash flows and discount rate assumptions. If these assumptions are incorrect, the valuation may be inaccurate.
Terminal value:
The DCF method may not be appropriate for companies with an indefinite life, as it requires estimating a terminal value for cash flows beyond the forecast period. This can introduce significant uncertainty into the valuation.

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